CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 5 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 5 · 3 games

Middle Tennessee @ KansasKansas 93%

Model

Kansas -21.1 · mkt Kansas —

proj Middle Tennessee 17.7 · Kansas 38.8

Total

proj 56.5

Liberty @ DelawareLiberty 57%

Model

Liberty -2.6 · mkt Liberty —

proj Liberty 31.3 · Delaware 28.7

Total

proj 60.0

Western Kentucky @ New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky 75%

Model

Western Kentucky -9.4 · mkt Western Kentucky —

proj Western Kentucky 31.8 · New Mexico State 22.5

Total

proj 54.3

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.