CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 4 · 7 games
Sam Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 99%
Model
Texas Tech -35.9 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Sam Houston 15.5 · Texas Tech 51.5
Total
proj 67.0
Missouri State @ SMUSMU 98%
Model
SMU -28.6 · mkt SMU —
proj Missouri State 13.5 · SMU 42.1
Total
proj 55.7
Delaware @ VirginiaVirginia 98%
Model
Virginia -27.9 · mkt Virginia —
proj Delaware 11.5 · Virginia 39.4
Total
proj 50.9
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 75%
Model
Jacksonville State -9.8 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Middle Tennessee 23.4 · Jacksonville State 33.2
Total
proj 56.5
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.7 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Kennesaw State 24.8 · Arkansas State 31.5
Total
proj 56.2
Liberty @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 54%
Model
Coastal Carolina -1.3 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Liberty 26.7 · Coastal Carolina 27.9
Total
proj 54.6
New Mexico @ New Mexico StateNew Mexico 76%
Model
New Mexico -10.2 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 32.9 · New Mexico State 22.7
Total
proj 55.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.