CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 3 · 8 games
Kennesaw State @ TennesseeTennessee 98%
Model
Tennessee -30.3 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kennesaw State 10.6 · Tennessee 40.9
Total
proj 51.6
Western Kentucky @ IndianaIndiana 94%
Model
Indiana -21.8 · mkt Indiana —
proj Western Kentucky 15.4 · Indiana 37.2
Total
proj 52.7
Ball State @ LibertyLiberty 84%
Model
Liberty -14.1 · mkt Liberty —
proj Ball State 20.9 · Liberty 35.0
Total
proj 56.0
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 69%
Model
Jacksonville State -6.9 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Georgia Southern 24.2 · Jacksonville State 31.1
Total
proj 55.2
Coastal Carolina @ DelawareDelaware 68%
Model
Delaware -6.7 · mkt Delaware —
proj Coastal Carolina 26.1 · Delaware 32.8
Total
proj 58.9
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 56%
Model
Florida Atlantic -2.3 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida International 26.1 · Florida Atlantic 28.4
Total
proj 54.6
Marshall @ Missouri StateMarshall 53%
Model
Marshall -1.2 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 31.9 · Missouri State 30.7
Total
proj 62.7
Nevada @ Middle TennesseeNevada 54%
Model
Nevada -1.5 · mkt Nevada —
proj Nevada 27.4 · Middle Tennessee 25.9
Total
proj 53.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.