CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 2 · 8 games
Western Kentucky @ GeorgiaGeorgia 100%
Model
Georgia -42.3 · mkt Georgia —
proj Western Kentucky 6.3 · Georgia 48.6
Total
proj 54.9
Delaware @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 100%
Model
Vanderbilt -37.1 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Delaware 7.9 · Vanderbilt 45.0
Total
proj 52.8
Middle Tennessee @ MarshallMarshall 80%
Model
Marshall -11.8 · mkt Marshall —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.0 · Marshall 32.8
Total
proj 53.7
Georgia State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 79%
Model
Kennesaw State -11.2 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Georgia State 20.6 · Kennesaw State 31.9
Total
proj 52.5
New Mexico State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 75%
Model
Hawai'i -9.6 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj New Mexico State 22.4 · Hawai'i 32.0
Total
proj 54.4
Jacksonville State @ OhioOhio 67%
Model
Ohio -6.1 · mkt Ohio —
proj Jacksonville State 25.1 · Ohio 31.3
Total
proj 56.4
Buffalo @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 57%
Model
Florida International -2.5 · mkt Florida International —
proj Buffalo 24.5 · Florida International 26.9
Total
proj 51.4
Tulsa @ Sam HoustonTulsa 64%
Model
Tulsa -5.1 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Tulsa 29.9 · Sam Houston 24.7
Total
proj 54.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.