CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 13 · 5 games
Sam Houston @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 80%
Model
Florida International -12.2 · mkt Florida International —
proj Sam Houston 19.5 · Florida International 31.7
Total
proj 51.3
Kennesaw State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 76%
Model
Western Kentucky -9.9 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Kennesaw State 21.7 · Western Kentucky 31.6
Total
proj 53.4
New Mexico State @ Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee 67%
Model
Middle Tennessee -6.2 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj New Mexico State 24.3 · Middle Tennessee 30.5
Total
proj 54.8
Liberty @ Missouri StateLiberty 55%
Model
Liberty -2.0 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 28.2 · Missouri State 26.2
Total
proj 54.4
Jacksonville State @ DelawareJacksonville State 57%
Model
Jacksonville State -2.5 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Jacksonville State 29.0 · Delaware 26.5
Total
proj 55.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.