CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 12 · 5 games
Missouri State @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 78%
Model
Jacksonville State -11.0 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Missouri State 21.3 · Jacksonville State 32.3
Total
proj 53.5
Florida International @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 61%
Model
Kennesaw State -4.1 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Florida International 25.2 · Kennesaw State 29.4
Total
proj 54.6
Western Kentucky @ LibertyLiberty 50%
Model
Liberty 0.0 · mkt Liberty —
proj Western Kentucky 29.2 · Liberty 29.2
Total
proj 58.3
Delaware @ New Mexico StateDelaware 50%
Model
Delaware -0.1 · mkt Delaware —
proj Delaware 25.1 · New Mexico State 24.9
Total
proj 50.0
Middle Tennessee @ Sam HoustonMiddle Tennessee 56%
Model
Middle Tennessee -2.2 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj Middle Tennessee 28.5 · Sam Houston 26.3
Total
proj 54.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.