CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 11 · 5 games
Jacksonville State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 76%
Model
Western Kentucky -10.2 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Jacksonville State 20.9 · Western Kentucky 31.0
Total
proj 51.9
Middle Tennessee @ LibertyLiberty 70%
Model
Liberty -7.5 · mkt Liberty —
proj Middle Tennessee 23.5 · Liberty 31.0
Total
proj 54.5
New Mexico State @ Missouri StateMissouri State 63%
Model
Missouri State -4.5 · mkt Missouri State —
proj New Mexico State 27.9 · Missouri State 32.5
Total
proj 60.4
Florida International @ DelawareDelaware 53%
Model
Delaware -1.0 · mkt Delaware —
proj Florida International 29.3 · Delaware 30.2
Total
proj 59.5
Kennesaw State @ Sam HoustonKennesaw State 87%
Model
Kennesaw State -15.9 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 34.8 · Sam Houston 18.9
Total
proj 53.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.