CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 10 · 5 games
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 81%
Model
Jacksonville State -12.3 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Sam Houston 18.7 · Jacksonville State 30.9
Total
proj 49.6
Missouri State @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 72%
Model
Florida International -8.2 · mkt Florida International —
proj Missouri State 23.4 · Florida International 31.5
Total
proj 54.9
Delaware @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 71%
Model
Kennesaw State -7.9 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Delaware 21.7 · Kennesaw State 29.7
Total
proj 51.4
Western Kentucky @ Middle TennesseeWestern Kentucky 64%
Model
Western Kentucky -5.1 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 30.1 · Middle Tennessee 25.0
Total
proj 55.1
Liberty @ New Mexico StateLiberty 65%
Model
Liberty -5.4 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 32.0 · New Mexico State 26.6
Total
proj 58.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.