CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State12.4 pt gap
Model vs mktNorth Dakota State -20.4 · mkt North Dakota State ~-8.0
LeanNorth Dakota State -8.0
Best priceNorth Dakota State -7.5 -110best of 7
WinNorth Dakota State 92%
Liberty @ James Madison11.2 pt gap
Model vs mktJames Madison -17.5 · mkt James Madison ~-6.3
LeanJames Madison -6.3
Best priceJames Madison -6 -110best of 7
WinJames Madison 89%
Florida International @ South Florida9.9 pt gap
Model vs mktSouth Florida -21.9 · mkt South Florida ~-12.0
LeanSouth Florida -12.0
Best priceSouth Florida -11.5 -110best of 7
WinSouth Florida 94%
Missouri State @ Texas A&M4.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -43.7 · mkt Texas A&M ~-39.0
LeanTexas A&M -39.0
Best priceTexas A&M -38.5 -110best of 7
WinTexas A&M 100%
Western Kentucky @ Nevada1.8 pt gap
Model vs mktWestern Kentucky -4.8 · mkt Western Kentucky ~-3.0
LeanWestern Kentucky -3.0
Best priceWestern Kentucky -2.5 -122best of 6
WinWestern Kentucky 63%
Sam Houston @ Troy1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktTroy -16.5 · mkt Troy ~-17.8
LeanSam Houston +17.8
Best priceSam Houston +18 -106best of 7
WinTroy 88%
New Mexico State @ Florida State0.5 pt gap
Model vs mktFlorida State -30.8 · mkt Florida State ~-30.3
LeanFlorida State -30.3
Best priceFlorida State -29.5 -108best of 7
WinFlorida State 98%
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 1 · 7 games
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 92%
Model
North Dakota State -20.4 · mkt North Dakota State ~-8.0
proj Jacksonville State 18.4 · North Dakota State 38.8
leans North Dakota State -8.0
◆ Mid 1
North Dakota State -7.5 -110FanDuel
Jacksonville State +8.5 -108DraftKings
Liberty @ James MadisonJames Madison 89%
Model
James Madison -17.5 · mkt James Madison ~-6.3
proj Liberty 18.8 · James Madison 36.3
leans James Madison -6.3
◆ Mid 0.5
James Madison -6 -110DraftKings
Liberty +6.5 -108FanDuel
Florida International @ South FloridaSouth Florida 94%
Model
South Florida -21.9 · mkt South Florida ~-12.0
proj Florida International 16.1 · South Florida 38.0
leans South Florida -12.0
◆ Mid 1
South Florida -11.5 -110FanDuel
Florida International +12.5 -108DraftKings
Missouri State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 100%
Model
Texas A&M -43.7 · mkt Texas A&M ~-39.0
proj Missouri State 4.4 · Texas A&M 48.1
leans Texas A&M -39.0
◆ Mid 1
Texas A&M -38.5 -110DraftKings
Missouri State +39.5 -110FanDuel
Western Kentucky @ NevadaWestern Kentucky 63%
Model
Western Kentucky -4.8 · mkt Western Kentucky ~-3.0
proj Western Kentucky 29.9 · Nevada 25.1
leans Western Kentucky -3.0
◆ Mid 1
Nevada +3.5 -111LowVig
Western Kentucky -2.5 -122FanDuel
Sam Houston @ TroyTroy 88%
Model
Troy -16.5 · mkt Troy ~-17.8
proj Sam Houston 19.4 · Troy 36.0
leans Sam Houston +17.8
◆ Mid 0.5
Troy -17.5 -105DraftKings
Sam Houston +18 -106LowVig
New Mexico State @ Florida StateFlorida State 98%
Model
Florida State -30.8 · mkt Florida State ~-30.3
proj New Mexico State 13.1 · Florida State 43.8
leans Florida State -30.3
◆ Mid 1.5
Florida State -29.5 -108DraftKings
New Mexico State +31 -106LowVig
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.