CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 8 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Conference USA · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–175%
ATS vs close
2–250%
Model margin MAE
14.9
Market margin MAE
16.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida International @ Western KentuckyFinal 25–6
Model
pred Western Kentucky 15.1 · actual Florida International 19
winner Western Kentucky ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.1 · mkt 29.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ LibertyFinal 27–30
Model
pred Liberty 7.7 · actual Liberty 3
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Delaware @ Jacksonville StateFinal 25–38
Model
pred Jacksonville State 7.2 · actual Jacksonville State 13
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 16.0 · closer
UTEP @ Sam HoustonFinal 35–17
Model
pred UTEP 2.8 · actual UTEP 18
winner UTEP ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.2 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.