CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 7 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 7 backtest · Conference USA · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–250%
ATS vs close
3–175%
Model margin MAE
15.3
Market margin MAE
12.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Missouri State @ Middle TennesseeFinal 22–20
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 13.7 · actual Missouri State 2
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.7 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Sam HoustonFinal 29–27
Model
pred Jacksonville State 5.1 · actual Jacksonville State 2
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Liberty @ UTEPFinal 19–8
Model
pred Liberty 7.3 · actual Liberty 11
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.7 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw StateFinal 7–35
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 10.8 · actual Kennesaw State 28
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 38.8 · mkt 32.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.