CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 6 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Conference USA · 3 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–233%
ATS vs close
3–0100%
Model margin MAE
18.2
Market margin MAE
22.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida International @ UConnFinal 10–51
Model
pred UConn 16.9 · actual UConn 41
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.1 · mkt 34.0 · closer
Western Kentucky @ DelawareFinal 27–24
Model
pred Delaware 0.2 · actual Western Kentucky 3
winner Delaware ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Sam Houston @ New Mexico StateFinal 10–37
Model
pred Sam Houston 0.3 · actual New Mexico State 27
winner Sam Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.3 · mkt 29.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.