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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 5 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Conference USA · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
12.3
Market margin MAE
5.4
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
New Mexico State @ New MexicoFinal 20–38
Model
pred New Mexico 9.2 · actual New Mexico 18
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Old DominionFinal 7–21
Model
pred Old Dominion 8.1 · actual Old Dominion 14
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw StateFinal 16–24
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 3.4 · actual Kennesaw State 8
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ UTEPFinal 30–11
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 5.0 · actual Louisiana Tech 19
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Jacksonville State @ Southern MissFinal 25–42
Model
pred Jacksonville State 8.8 · actual Southern Miss 17
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.8 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Western Kentucky @ Missouri StateFinal 27–22
Model
pred Western Kentucky 13.1 · actual Western Kentucky 5
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.