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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 4 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · Conference USA · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–450%
ATS vs close
1–713%
Model margin MAE
18.0
Market margin MAE
12.6
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Sam Houston @ TexasFinal 0–55
Model
pred Texas 34.7 · actual Texas 55
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +39.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.3 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
UL Monroe @ UTEPFinal 31–25
Model
pred UTEP 21.7 · actual UL Monroe 6
winner UTEP ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ Louisiana TechFinal 20–30
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 10.8 · actual Louisiana Tech 10
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 7.0 · closer
James Madison @ LibertyFinal 31–13
Model
pred Liberty 10.4 · actual James Madison 18
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.4 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Delaware @ Florida InternationalFinal 38–16
Model
pred Florida International 9.9 · actual Delaware 22
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.9 · mkt 26.0 · mkt closer
Nevada @ Western KentuckyFinal 16–31
Model
pred Western Kentucky 5.0 · actual Western Kentucky 15
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Marshall @ Middle TennesseeFinal 42–28
Model
pred Marshall 0.8 · actual Marshall 14
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.2 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ Kennesaw StateFinal 21–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 5.0 · actual Kennesaw State 7
winner Arkansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.