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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 3 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Conference USA · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–538%
ATS vs close
4–450%
Model margin MAE
15.1
Market margin MAE
13.5
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UTEP @ TexasFinal 10–27
Model
pred Texas 37.2 · actual Texas 17
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +39.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.2 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Middle Tennessee @ NevadaFinal 14–13
Model
pred Nevada 9.9 · actual Middle Tennessee 1
winner Nevada ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ Florida InternationalFinal 28–38
Model
pred Florida International 3.9 · actual Florida International 10
winner Florida International ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 8.0 · closer
New Mexico State @ Louisiana TechFinal 14–49
Model
pred New Mexico State 4.1 · actual Louisiana Tech 35
winner New Mexico State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.1 · mkt 25.0 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Bowling GreenFinal 13–23
Model
pred Liberty 5.3 · actual Bowling Green 10
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Jacksonville State @ Georgia SouthernFinal 34–41
Model
pred Jacksonville State 6.3 · actual Georgia Southern 7
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
UConn @ DelawareFinal 41–44
Model
pred UConn 9.7 · actual Delaware 3
winner UConn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
SMU @ Missouri StateFinal 28–10
Model
pred SMU 15.0 · actual SMU 18
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri State +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 10.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.