CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 2 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS IndependentsBig Sky
Week 2 backtest · Conference USA · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–370%
ATS vs close
4–640%
Model margin MAE
13.1
Market margin MAE
10.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida International @ Penn StateFinal 0–34
Model
pred Penn State 42.4 · actual Penn State 34
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -41.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 7.8 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ IndianaFinal 9–56
Model
pred Indiana 30.3 · actual Indiana 47
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +35.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ LSUFinal 7–23
Model
pred LSU 28.1 · actual LSU 16
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +36.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Delaware @ ColoradoFinal 7–31
Model
pred Colorado 25.4 · actual Colorado 24
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Missouri State @ MarshallFinal 21–20
Model
pred Marshall 24.3 · actual Missouri State 1
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -7.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.3 · mkt 8.3 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ WisconsinFinal 10–42
Model
pred Wisconsin 20.2 · actual Wisconsin 32
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Western Kentucky @ ToledoFinal 21–45
Model
pred Toledo 2.0 · actual Toledo 24
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +8.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Jacksonville StateFinal 24–34
Model
pred Jacksonville State 1.7 · actual Jacksonville State 10
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +6.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 16.3 · closer
Tulsa @ New Mexico StateFinal 14–21
Model
pred Tulsa 0.1 · actual New Mexico State 7
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +3.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.1 · mkt 10.3 · closer
Sam Houston @ Hawai'iFinal 20–37
Model
pred Sam Houston 1.3 · actual Hawai'i 17
winner Sam Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +7.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 9.7 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.