CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 15 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
Week 15 backtest · Conference USA · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–10%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
14.8
Market margin MAE
1.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville StateFinal 19–15
Model
pred Jacksonville State 10.8 · actual Kennesaw State 4
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.