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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 14 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Conference USA · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
4–267%
Model margin MAE
16.2
Market margin MAE
14.7
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kennesaw State @ LibertyFinal 48–42
Model
pred Liberty 13.4 · actual Kennesaw State 6
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ DelawareFinal 31–61
Model
pred Delaware 12.8 · actual Delaware 30
winner Delaware ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Delaware -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville StateFinal 34–37
Model
pred Jacksonville State 6.0 · actual Jacksonville State 3
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico StateFinal 31–24
Model
pred New Mexico State 2.6 · actual Middle Tennessee 7
winner New Mexico State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Florida International @ Sam HoustonFinal 56–16
Model
pred Florida International 0.4 · actual Florida International 40
winner Florida International ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.6 · mkt 29.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ Missouri StateFinal 42–30
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 3.6 · actual Louisiana Tech 12
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 14.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.