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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 13 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · Conference USA · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–357%
ATS vs close
5–271%
Model margin MAE
12.0
Market margin MAE
9.7
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Western Kentucky @ LSUFinal 10–13
Model
pred LSU 22.1 · actual LSU 3
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Delaware @ Wake ForestFinal 14–52
Model
pred Wake Forest 17.8 · actual Wake Forest 38
winner Wake Forest ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest -17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.2 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Missouri State @ Kennesaw StateFinal 34–41
Model
pred Kennesaw State 16.1 · actual Kennesaw State 7
winner Kennesaw State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Middle TennesseeFinal 17–31
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 6.7 · actual Middle Tennessee 14
winner Middle Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
New Mexico State @ UTEPFinal 34–31
Model
pred UTEP 4.9 · actual New Mexico State 3
winner UTEP ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Louisiana TechFinal 28–34
Model
pred Liberty 1.2 · actual Louisiana Tech 6
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Jacksonville State @ Florida InternationalFinal 21–27
Model
pred Jacksonville State 7.3 · actual Florida International 6
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.