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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 11 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Conference USA · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–433%
ATS vs close
4–267%
Model margin MAE
14.0
Market margin MAE
13.4
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Missouri State @ LibertyFinal 21–17
Model
pred Liberty 20.9 · actual Missouri State 4
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.9 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Florida International @ Middle TennesseeFinal 56–30
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 13.8 · actual Florida International 26
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.8 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Oregon StateFinal 21–17
Model
pred Oregon State 6.6 · actual Sam Houston 4
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 25.0 · closer
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico StateFinal 24–21
Model
pred Kennesaw State 3.1 · actual Kennesaw State 3
winner Kennesaw State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ DelawareFinal 24–25
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 5.1 · actual Delaware 1
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Delaware +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Jacksonville State @ UTEPFinal 30–27
Model
pred Jacksonville State 5.8 · actual Jacksonville State 3
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.