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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 10 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · Conference USA · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–0100%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
14.1
Market margin MAE
11.3
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
New Mexico State @ Western KentuckyFinal 16–35
Model
pred Western Kentucky 11.4 · actual Western Kentucky 19
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.6 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Florida International @ Missouri StateFinal 21–28
Model
pred Missouri State 8.3 · actual Missouri State 7
winner Missouri State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Delaware @ LibertyFinal 30–59
Model
pred Liberty 6.9 · actual Liberty 29
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.1 · mkt 25.5 · closer
UTEP @ Kennesaw StateFinal 20–33
Model
pred Kennesaw State 5.5 · actual Kennesaw State 13
winner Kennesaw State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Louisiana TechFinal 14–55
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 3.8 · actual Louisiana Tech 41
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.2 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Middle TennesseeFinal 24–21
Model
pred Jacksonville State 11.7 · actual Jacksonville State 3
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.