CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 9 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 9 backtest · Conference USA · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–175%
ATS vs close
2–250%
Model margin MAE
9.3
Market margin MAE
9.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville StateFinal 20–42
Model
pred Jacksonville State 18.2 · actual Jacksonville State 22
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ Louisiana TechFinal 10–14
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 9.1 · actual Louisiana Tech 4
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Florida InternationalFinal 10–7
Model
pred Sam Houston 4.3 · actual Sam Houston 3
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Liberty @ Kennesaw StateFinal 24–27
Model
pred Liberty 24.2 · actual Kennesaw State 3
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +27.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.2 · mkt 30.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.