CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 8 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Conference USA · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–325%
ATS vs close
2–250%
Model margin MAE
13.0
Market margin MAE
12.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kennesaw State @ Middle TennesseeFinal 5–14
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 5.2 · actual Middle Tennessee 9
winner Middle Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Western Kentucky @ Sam HoustonFinal 31–14
Model
pred Sam Houston 1.0 · actual Western Kentucky 17
winner Sam Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.0 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico StateFinal 30–33
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 8.2 · actual New Mexico State 3
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.2 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Florida International @ UTEPFinal 21–30
Model
pred Florida International 10.0 · actual UTEP 9
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.