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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 6 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Conference USA · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
16.5
Market margin MAE
15.8
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Sam Houston @ UTEPFinal 41–21
Model
pred Sam Houston 9.4 · actual Sam Houston 20
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw StateFinal 63–24
Model
pred Jacksonville State 16.6 · actual Jacksonville State 39
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.4 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.