CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 3 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Conference USA · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–275%
ATS vs close
2–625%
Model margin MAE
18.0
Market margin MAE
12.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Louisiana Tech @ NC StateFinal 20–30
Model
pred NC State 29.2 · actual NC State 10
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State -20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.2 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ LibertyFinal 10–28
Model
pred Liberty 28.6 · actual Liberty 18
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ San José StateFinal 10–31
Model
pred San José State 26.2 · actual San José State 21
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -17.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ Fresno StateFinal 0–48
Model
pred Fresno State 10.8 · actual Fresno State 48
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +20.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.2 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Eastern MichiganFinal 34–37
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 6.8 · actual Eastern Michigan 3
winner Eastern Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Western Kentucky @ Middle TennesseeFinal 49–21
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 3.4 · actual Western Kentucky 28
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.4 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ Sam HoustonFinal 13–31
Model
pred Sam Houston 0.2 · actual Sam Houston 18
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticFinal 20–38
Model
pred Florida International 0.9 · actual Florida Atlantic 18
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.9 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.