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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 15 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 15 backtest · Conference USA · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
35.7
Market margin MAE
35.5
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville StateFinal 12–52
Model
pred Jacksonville State 4.3 · actual Jacksonville State 40
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.7 · mkt 35.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.