CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 14 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Conference USA · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–260%
ATS vs close
2–340%
Model margin MAE
9.3
Market margin MAE
8.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kennesaw State @ Louisiana TechFinal 0–33
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 16.2 · actual Louisiana Tech 33
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.8 · mkt 22.5 · closer
UTEP @ New Mexico StateFinal 42–35
Model
pred New Mexico State 6.9 · actual UTEP 7
winner New Mexico State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ Florida InternationalFinal 24–35
Model
pred Florida International 3.6 · actual Florida International 11
winner Florida International ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Western KentuckyFinal 17–19
Model
pred Western Kentucky 0.1 · actual Western Kentucky 2
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +0.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Liberty @ Sam HoustonFinal 18–20
Model
pred Liberty 4.6 · actual Sam Houston 2
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.6 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.