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2024 · Week 13 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · Conference USA · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
10.5
Market margin MAE
11.0
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UTEP @ TennesseeFinal 0–56
Model
pred Tennessee 39.7 · actual Tennessee 56
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +41.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ ArkansasFinal 14–35
Model
pred Arkansas 15.3 · actual Arkansas 21
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville StateFinal 11–21
Model
pred Jacksonville State 10.7 · actual Jacksonville State 10
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Western Kentucky @ LibertyFinal 21–38
Model
pred Liberty 6.9 · actual Liberty 17
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 16.0 · closer
New Mexico State @ Middle TennesseeFinal 36–21
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 4.6 · actual New Mexico State 15
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.6 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Florida International @ Kennesaw StateFinal 26–27
Model
pred Florida International 9.3 · actual Kennesaw State 1
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International -9.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.