CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 12 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Conference USA · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–180%
ATS vs close
2–340%
Model margin MAE
13.6
Market margin MAE
12.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
New Mexico State @ Texas A&MFinal 3–38
Model
pred Texas A&M 29.9 · actual Texas A&M 35
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +38.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ Western KentuckyFinal 12–7
Model
pred Western Kentucky 13.4 · actual Louisiana Tech 5
winner Western Kentucky ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky -11.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.4 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Florida International @ Jacksonville StateFinal 31–34
Model
pred Jacksonville State 12.9 · actual Jacksonville State 3
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Kennesaw StateFinal 23–17
Model
pred Sam Houston 18.1 · actual Sam Houston 6
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Liberty @ MassachusettsFinal 35–34
Model
pred Liberty 23.5 · actual Liberty 1
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.