CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 11 · Conference USA · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Conference USA · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–0100%
ATS vs close
3–175%
Model margin MAE
3.5
Market margin MAE
4.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kennesaw State @ UTEPFinal 35–43
Model
pred UTEP 8.7 · actual UTEP 8
winner UTEP ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana TechFinal 44–37
Model
pred Jacksonville State 11.0 · actual Jacksonville State 7
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Middle TennesseeFinal 37–17
Model
pred Liberty 13.2 · actual Liberty 20
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.8 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico StateFinal 41–28
Model
pred Western Kentucky 15.6 · actual Western Kentucky 13
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +18.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 5.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.