CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 9 · 9 games
Purdue @ Penn StatePenn State 95%
Model
Penn State -24.1 · mkt Penn State —
proj Purdue 16.3 · Penn State 40.4
Total
proj 56.7
Northwestern @ OregonOregon 95%
Model
Oregon -23.5 · mkt Oregon —
proj Northwestern 16.7 · Oregon 40.2
Total
proj 56.9
Minnesota @ IndianaIndiana 92%
Model
Indiana -19.6 · mkt Indiana —
proj Minnesota 17.2 · Indiana 36.8
Total
proj 54.0
Washington @ NebraskaWashington 50%
Model
Washington -0.1 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 28.8 · Nebraska 28.7
Total
proj 57.5
Ohio State @ USCOhio State 62%
Model
Ohio State -4.3 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 29.6 · USC 25.2
Total
proj 54.8
Michigan @ RutgersMichigan 62%
Model
Michigan -4.4 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan 30.6 · Rutgers 26.2
Total
proj 56.7
Illinois @ MarylandIllinois 66%
Model
Illinois -5.9 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 31.2 · Maryland 25.3
Total
proj 56.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.