CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Ohio State @ Indiana1.7 pt gap
Model vs mktIndiana -3.2 · mkt Indiana ~-1.5
LeanIndiana -1.5
Best priceIndiana -1.5 -102best of 2
WinIndiana 59%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 7 · 7 games
Ohio State @ IndianaIndiana 59%
Model
Indiana -3.2 · mkt Indiana ~-1.5
proj Ohio State 30.0 · Indiana 33.2
leans Indiana -1.5
◆ Mid 0
Indiana -1.5 -102FanDuel
Ohio State +1.5 -120FanDuel
Nebraska @ OregonOregon 90%
Model
Oregon -18.4 · mkt Oregon —
proj Nebraska 18.0 · Oregon 36.4
Total
proj 54.4
Penn State @ MichiganMichigan 53%
Model
Michigan -1.2 · mkt Michigan —
proj Penn State 27.4 · Michigan 28.6
Total
proj 56.0
Rutgers @ MarylandRutgers 51%
Model
Rutgers -0.3 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 26.1 · Maryland 25.7
Total
proj 51.8
Northwestern @ Michigan StateNorthwestern 58%
Model
Northwestern -2.8 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Northwestern 27.1 · Michigan State 24.2
Total
proj 51.3
Washington @ PurdueWashington 83%
Model
Washington -13.5 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 35.6 · Purdue 22.1
Total
proj 57.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.