CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
USC @ Penn State6.4 pt gap
Model vs mktPenn State -4.9 · mkt Penn State ~+1.5
LeanPenn State +1.5
Best pricePenn State +1.5 -110best of 1
WinPenn State 64%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 6 · 8 games
USC @ Penn StatePenn State 64%
Model
Penn State -4.9 · mkt Penn State ~+1.5
proj USC 24.9 · Penn State 29.8
leans Penn State +1.5
◆ Mid 0
Penn State +1.5 -110DraftKings
USC -1.5 -110DraftKings
Maryland @ Ohio StateOhio State 99%
Model
Ohio State -34.2 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Maryland 11.0 · Ohio State 45.1
Total
proj 56.1
Ball State @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 95%
Model
Northwestern -23.3 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Ball State 14.9 · Northwestern 38.2
Total
proj 53.1
Minnesota @ PurduePurdue 50%
Model
Purdue -0.1 · mkt Purdue —
proj Minnesota 28.3 · Purdue 28.4
Total
proj 56.8
Illinois @ Michigan StateIllinois 64%
Model
Illinois -5.2 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 28.9 · Michigan State 23.6
Total
proj 52.5
Indiana @ NebraskaIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.2 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 40.2 · Nebraska 19.0
Total
proj 59.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.