CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 5 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 5 · 8 games

Purdue @ IllinoisIllinois 84%

Model

Illinois -14.1 · mkt Illinois —

proj Purdue 20.4 · Illinois 34.5

Total

proj 54.8

Maryland @ NebraskaNebraska 82%

Model

Nebraska -13.2 · mkt Nebraska —

proj Maryland 20.7 · Nebraska 33.9

Total

proj 54.6

Washington @ USCUSC 72%

Model

USC -8.3 · mkt USC —

proj Washington 23.3 · USC 31.5

Total

proj 54.8

Michigan State @ WisconsinWisconsin 64%

Model

Wisconsin -5.1 · mkt Wisconsin —

proj Michigan State 24.5 · Wisconsin 29.6

Total

proj 54.0

Ohio State @ IowaOhio State 70%

Model

Ohio State -7.4 · mkt Ohio State —

proj Ohio State 31.9 · Iowa 24.5

Total

proj 56.4

Michigan @ MinnesotaMichigan 74%

Model

Michigan -9.3 · mkt Michigan —

proj Michigan 32.6 · Minnesota 23.3

Total

proj 55.9

Penn State @ NorthwesternPenn State 83%

Model

Penn State -13.7 · mkt Penn State —

proj Penn State 35.2 · Northwestern 21.5

Total

proj 56.7

Indiana @ RutgersIndiana 96%

Model

Indiana -25.0 · mkt Indiana —

proj Indiana 41.1 · Rutgers 16.1

Total

proj 57.2

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.