CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Oregon @ USC5.4 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -0.1 · mkt Oregon ~-5.5
LeanUSC +5.5
Best priceUSC +5.5 -110best of 1
WinOregon 50%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 4 · 9 games
Oregon @ USCOregon 50%
Model
Oregon -0.1 · mkt Oregon ~-5.5
proj Oregon 27.7 · USC 27.6
leans USC +5.5
◆ Mid 0
USC +5.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -5.5 -110DraftKings
Illinois @ Ohio StateOhio State 94%
Model
Ohio State -22.2 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Illinois 15.7 · Ohio State 37.8
Total
proj 53.5
Northwestern @ IndianaIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.4 · mkt Indiana —
proj Northwestern 17.2 · Indiana 38.6
Total
proj 55.9
Wisconsin @ Penn StatePenn State 90%
Model
Penn State -18.2 · mkt Penn State —
proj Wisconsin 16.7 · Penn State 34.9
Total
proj 51.6
Minnesota @ WashingtonWashington 71%
Model
Washington -7.8 · mkt Washington —
proj Minnesota 23.7 · Washington 31.5
Total
proj 55.2
UCLA @ MarylandMaryland 62%
Model
Maryland -4.5 · mkt Maryland —
proj UCLA 25.7 · Maryland 30.1
Total
proj 55.8
Iowa @ MichiganMichigan 56%
Model
Michigan -2.2 · mkt Michigan —
proj Iowa 25.5 · Michigan 27.7
Total
proj 53.2
Nebraska @ Michigan StateNebraska 60%
Model
Nebraska -3.5 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Nebraska 30.3 · Michigan State 26.8
Total
proj 57.1
Notre Dame @ PurdueNotre Dame 94%
Model
Notre Dame -22.5 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Notre Dame 36.4 · Purdue 13.8
Total
proj 50.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.