CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 3 · 11 games
Kent State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -48.0 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Kent State 9.3 · Ohio State 57.3
Total
proj 66.6
UTEP @ MichiganMichigan 100%
Model
Michigan -38.9 · mkt Michigan —
proj UTEP 5.4 · Michigan 44.3
Total
proj 49.7
Buffalo @ Penn StatePenn State 99%
Model
Penn State -35.4 · mkt Penn State —
proj Buffalo 8.0 · Penn State 43.4
Total
proj 51.4
Akron @ MinnesotaMinnesota 96%
Model
Minnesota -24.4 · mkt Minnesota —
proj Akron 16.2 · Minnesota 40.6
Total
proj 56.8
Western Kentucky @ IndianaIndiana 94%
Model
Indiana -21.8 · mkt Indiana —
proj Western Kentucky 15.4 · Indiana 37.2
Total
proj 52.7
Michigan State @ Notre DameNotre Dame 92%
Model
Notre Dame -19.5 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Michigan State 18.2 · Notre Dame 37.7
Total
proj 55.9
Eastern Michigan @ WisconsinWisconsin 90%
Model
Wisconsin -18.6 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Eastern Michigan 14.4 · Wisconsin 33.0
Total
proj 47.3
Colorado @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 76%
Model
Northwestern -10.2 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Colorado 17.5 · Northwestern 27.6
Total
proj 45.1
Virginia Tech @ MarylandMaryland 65%
Model
Maryland -5.6 · mkt Maryland —
proj Virginia Tech 27.2 · Maryland 32.8
Total
proj 59.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.