CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Oregon @ Oklahoma State5.6 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -24.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
LeanOregon -18.5
Best priceOregon -17.5 -105best of 2
WinOregon 95%
Ohio State @ Texas5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -4.7 · mkt Ohio State ~+0.8
LeanOhio State +0.8
Best priceOhio State +1.5 -108best of 4
WinOhio State 63%
Oklahoma @ Michigan4.1 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -1.6 · mkt Oklahoma ~+2.5
LeanOklahoma +2.5
Best priceOklahoma +2.5 -110best of 4
WinOklahoma 54%
Iowa State @ Iowa1.4 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -10.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
LeanIowa State +12.0
Best priceIowa State +12.5 +100best of 2
WinIowa 77%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 2 · 15 games
Oregon @ Oklahoma StateOregon 95%
Model
Oregon -24.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
proj Oregon 37.0 · Oklahoma State 12.9
leans Oregon -18.5
◆ Mid 2
Oklahoma State +19.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -17.5 -105FanDuel
Ohio State @ TexasOhio State 63%
Model
Ohio State -4.7 · mkt Ohio State ~+0.8
proj Ohio State 28.4 · Texas 23.7
leans Ohio State +0.8
◆ Mid 1.5
Texas 0 -110DraftKings
Ohio State +1.5 -108FanDuel
Oklahoma @ MichiganOklahoma 54%
Model
Oklahoma -1.6 · mkt Oklahoma ~+2.5
proj Oklahoma 25.1 · Michigan 23.5
leans Oklahoma +2.5
◆ Mid 0
Michigan -2.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +2.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State @ IowaIowa 77%
Model
Iowa -10.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
proj Iowa State 22.0 · Iowa 32.6
leans Iowa State +12.0
◆ Mid 1
Iowa -11.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State +12.5 +100FanDuel
Bowling Green @ NebraskaNebraska 95%
Model
Nebraska -23.8 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Bowling Green 12.9 · Nebraska 36.8
Total
proj 49.7
Utah State @ WashingtonWashington 94%
Model
Washington -22.3 · mkt Washington —
proj Utah State 18.1 · Washington 40.3
Total
proj 58.4
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan StateMichigan State 85%
Model
Michigan State -14.5 · mkt Michigan State —
proj Eastern Michigan 19.0 · Michigan State 33.4
Total
proj 52.4
Duke @ IllinoisIllinois 73%
Model
Illinois -8.7 · mkt Illinois —
proj Duke 22.8 · Illinois 31.5
Total
proj 54.3
Wake Forest @ PurduePurdue 51%
Model
Purdue -0.3 · mkt Purdue —
proj Wake Forest 27.9 · Purdue 28.3
Total
proj 56.2
Mississippi State @ MinnesotaMinnesota 50%
Model
Minnesota 0.0 · mkt Minnesota —
proj Mississippi State 27.6 · Minnesota 27.6
Total
proj 55.2
Rutgers @ Boston CollegeRutgers 61%
Model
Rutgers -3.9 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 30.2 · Boston College 26.3
Total
proj 56.5
San Diego State @ UCLASan Diego State 65%
Model
San Diego State -5.3 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 30.1 · UCLA 24.8
Total
proj 55.0
Penn State @ TemplePenn State 96%
Model
Penn State -24.3 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 41.9 · Temple 17.5
Total
proj 59.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.