CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Michigan @ Ohio State1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -12.8 · mkt Ohio State ~-11.5
LeanOhio State -11.5
Best priceOhio State -11.5 -110best of 1
WinOhio State 82%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 13 · 9 games
Michigan @ Ohio StateOhio State 82%
Model
Ohio State -12.8 · mkt Ohio State ~-11.5
proj Michigan 19.4 · Ohio State 32.2
leans Ohio State -11.5
◆ Mid 0
Ohio State -11.5 -110FanDuel
Michigan +11.5 -110FanDuel
Purdue @ IndianaIndiana 99%
Model
Indiana -31.3 · mkt Indiana —
proj Purdue 17.9 · Indiana 49.2
Total
proj 67.1
Washington @ OregonOregon 81%
Model
Oregon -12.3 · mkt Oregon —
proj Washington 21.3 · Oregon 33.6
Total
proj 54.8
Michigan State @ RutgersRutgers 70%
Model
Rutgers -7.7 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Michigan State 25.8 · Rutgers 33.4
Total
proj 59.2
Northwestern @ IllinoisIllinois 62%
Model
Illinois -4.4 · mkt Illinois —
proj Northwestern 26.7 · Illinois 31.1
Total
proj 57.7
Minnesota @ WisconsinWisconsin 56%
Model
Wisconsin -2.1 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Minnesota 26.1 · Wisconsin 28.2
Total
proj 54.3
Penn State @ MarylandPenn State 86%
Model
Penn State -15.2 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 38.0 · Maryland 22.8
Total
proj 60.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.