CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 12 · 9 games
UCLA @ MichiganMichigan 93%
Model
Michigan -20.7 · mkt Michigan —
proj UCLA 18.0 · Michigan 38.6
Total
proj 56.6
Rutgers @ Penn StatePenn State 91%
Model
Penn State -18.7 · mkt Penn State —
proj Rutgers 17.2 · Penn State 35.9
Total
proj 53.1
Wisconsin @ PurduePurdue 52%
Model
Purdue -0.7 · mkt Purdue —
proj Wisconsin 27.7 · Purdue 28.4
Total
proj 56.1
Northwestern @ MinnesotaNorthwestern 51%
Model
Northwestern -0.4 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Northwestern 27.7 · Minnesota 27.2
Total
proj 54.9
Indiana @ WashingtonIndiana 62%
Model
Indiana -4.3 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 28.6 · Washington 24.2
Total
proj 52.8
Ohio State @ NebraskaOhio State 91%
Model
Ohio State -18.7 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 37.4 · Nebraska 18.7
Total
proj 56.1
Oregon @ Michigan StateOregon 96%
Model
Oregon -25.0 · mkt Oregon —
proj Oregon 42.7 · Michigan State 17.7
Total
proj 60.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.