CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 11 · 9 games
Northwestern @ Ohio StateOhio State 96%
Model
Ohio State -24.3 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Northwestern 14.2 · Ohio State 38.4
Total
proj 52.6
Minnesota @ Penn StatePenn State 88%
Model
Penn State -16.6 · mkt Penn State —
proj Minnesota 18.7 · Penn State 35.3
Total
proj 54.0
USC @ IndianaIndiana 86%
Model
Indiana -15.1 · mkt Indiana —
proj USC 19.7 · Indiana 34.8
Total
proj 54.4
Michigan @ OregonOregon 77%
Model
Oregon -10.5 · mkt Oregon —
proj Michigan 21.5 · Oregon 32.0
Total
proj 53.5
Wisconsin @ MarylandMaryland 52%
Model
Maryland -0.6 · mkt Maryland —
proj Wisconsin 28.2 · Maryland 28.9
Total
proj 57.1
Nebraska @ RutgersNebraska 51%
Model
Nebraska -0.3 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Nebraska 29.2 · Rutgers 28.9
Total
proj 58.1
Illinois @ UCLAIllinois 72%
Model
Illinois -8.3 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 32.7 · UCLA 24.4
Total
proj 57.1
Washington @ Michigan StateWashington 76%
Model
Washington -10.2 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 32.9 · Michigan State 22.7
Total
proj 55.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.