CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 10 · 8 games
Michigan State @ MichiganMichigan 92%
Model
Michigan -19.7 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan State 18.0 · Michigan 37.7
Total
proj 55.7
Oregon @ Ohio StateOhio State 74%
Model
Ohio State -9.3 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Oregon 17.7 · Ohio State 27.0
Total
proj 44.7
UCLA @ MinnesotaMinnesota 73%
Model
Minnesota -8.6 · mkt Minnesota —
proj UCLA 22.9 · Minnesota 31.5
Total
proj 54.4
Nebraska @ IllinoisIllinois 62%
Model
Illinois -4.2 · mkt Illinois —
proj Nebraska 27.7 · Illinois 31.9
Total
proj 59.7
Maryland @ PurduePurdue 53%
Model
Purdue -1.1 · mkt Purdue —
proj Maryland 28.6 · Purdue 29.7
Total
proj 58.3
Penn State @ WashingtonWashington 51%
Model
Washington -0.2 · mkt Washington —
proj Penn State 26.5 · Washington 26.7
Total
proj 53.2
Rutgers @ WisconsinRutgers 54%
Model
Rutgers -1.6 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 25.0 · Wisconsin 23.4
Total
proj 48.4
Iowa @ NorthwesternIowa 61%
Model
Iowa -4.0 · mkt Iowa —
proj Iowa 30.0 · Northwestern 26.0
Total
proj 55.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.