CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
North Texas @ Indiana18.7 pt gap
Model vs mktIndiana -21.3 · mkt Indiana ~-40.0
LeanNorth Texas +40.0
Best priceNorth Texas +40.5 -110best of 7
WinIndiana 93%
Ohio @ Nebraska13.2 pt gap
Model vs mktNebraska -10.3 · mkt Nebraska ~-23.5
LeanOhio +23.5
Best priceOhio +23.5 -112best of 7
WinNebraska 76%
Toledo @ Michigan State12.0 pt gap
Model vs mktToledo -1.0 · mkt Toledo ~+11.0
LeanToledo +11.0
Best priceToledo +11.5 -115best of 7
WinToledo 53%
Northern Illinois @ Iowa9.5 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -40.0 · mkt Iowa ~-30.5
LeanIowa -30.5
Best priceIowa -30.5 -105best of 7
WinIowa 100%
Washington State @ Washington7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktWashington -13.8 · mkt Washington ~-21.5
LeanWashington State +21.5
Best priceWashington State +21.5 -112best of 6
WinWashington 83%
Marshall @ Penn State7.0 pt gap
Model vs mktPenn State -30.0 · mkt Penn State ~-23.0
LeanPenn State -23.0
Best pricePenn State -22.5 -106best of 7
WinPenn State 98%
Western Michigan @ Michigan6.9 pt gap
Model vs mktMichigan -19.1 · mkt Michigan ~-26.0
LeanWestern Michigan +26.0
Best priceWestern Michigan +26.5 -108best of 7
WinMichigan 91%
Massachusetts @ Rutgers5.7 pt gap
Model vs mktRutgers -36.2 · mkt Rutgers ~-30.5
LeanRutgers -30.5
Best priceRutgers -30.5 -110best of 5
WinRutgers 99%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 1 · 15 games
North Texas @ IndianaIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.3 · mkt Indiana ~-40.0
proj North Texas 16.1 · Indiana 37.4
leans North Texas +40.0
◆ Mid 1
Indiana -39.5 -115FanDuel
North Texas +40.5 -110DraftKings
Ohio @ NebraskaNebraska 76%
Model
Nebraska -10.3 · mkt Nebraska ~-23.5
proj Ohio 22.2 · Nebraska 32.5
leans Ohio +23.5
◆ Mid 0
Nebraska -23.5 -108DraftKings
Ohio +23.5 -112DraftKings
Toledo @ Michigan StateToledo 53%
Model
Toledo -1.0 · mkt Toledo ~+11.0
proj Toledo 29.7 · Michigan State 28.7
leans Toledo +11.0
◆ Mid 1
Michigan State -10.5 -110DraftKings
Toledo +11.5 -115FanDuel
Northern Illinois @ IowaIowa 100%
Model
Iowa -40.0 · mkt Iowa ~-30.5
proj Northern Illinois 6.9 · Iowa 46.9
leans Iowa -30.5
◆ Mid 0
Iowa -30.5 -105DraftKings
Northern Illinois +30.5 -115DraftKings
Washington State @ WashingtonWashington 83%
Model
Washington -13.8 · mkt Washington ~-21.5
proj Washington State 18.3 · Washington 32.1
leans Washington State +21.5
◆ Mid 0
Washington -21.5 -108DraftKings
Washington State +21.5 -112DraftKings
Marshall @ Penn StatePenn State 98%
Model
Penn State -30.0 · mkt Penn State ~-23.0
proj Marshall 11.1 · Penn State 41.2
leans Penn State -23.0
◆ Mid 1
Penn State -22.5 -106LowVig
Marshall +23.5 -112DraftKings
Western Michigan @ MichiganMichigan 91%
Model
Michigan -19.1 · mkt Michigan ~-26.0
proj Western Michigan 17.2 · Michigan 36.2
leans Western Michigan +26.0
◆ Mid 1
Michigan -25.5 -112FanDuel
Western Michigan +26.5 -108DraftKings
Massachusetts @ RutgersRutgers 99%
Model
Rutgers -36.2 · mkt Rutgers ~-30.5
proj Massachusetts 8.0 · Rutgers 44.1
leans Rutgers -30.5
◆ Mid 0
Rutgers -30.5 -110DraftKings
Massachusetts +30.5 -110DraftKings
Ball State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -46.5 · mkt Ohio State ~-50.0
proj Ball State 11.2 · Ohio State 57.6
leans Ball State +50.0
◆ Mid 1
Ohio State -49.5 -106LowVig
Ball State +50.5 -110DraftKings
UCLA @ CaliforniaCalifornia 61%
Model
California -4.1 · mkt California ~-0.8
proj UCLA 27.3 · California 31.3
leans California -0.8
◆ Mid 1.5
California 0 -106LowVig
UCLA +1.5 -112DraftKings
Fresno State @ USCUSC 93%
Model
USC -20.8 · mkt USC ~-23.0
proj Fresno State 18.5 · USC 39.3
leans Fresno State +23.0
◆ Mid 1
USC -22.5 -106LowVig
Fresno State +23.5 -110DraftKings
UAB @ IllinoisIllinois 97%
Model
Illinois -26.0 · mkt Illinois ~-27.5
proj UAB 12.9 · Illinois 38.8
leans UAB +27.5
◆ Mid 0
Illinois -27.5 -112DraftKings
UAB +27.5 -108DraftKings
San José State @ USCUSC 99%
Model
USC -34.6 · mkt USC ~-35.5
proj San José State 8.7 · USC 43.3
leans San José State +35.5
◆ Mid 0
USC -35.5 -112DraftKings
San José State +35.5 -108DraftKings
Boise State @ OregonOregon 95%
Model
Oregon -23.8 · mkt Oregon ~-24.5
proj Boise State 14.4 · Oregon 38.1
leans Boise State +24.5
◆ Mid 0
Oregon -24.5 -115DraftKings
Boise State +24.5 -105DraftKings
Notre Dame @ WisconsinNotre Dame 90%
Model
Notre Dame -18.0 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Notre Dame 35.4 · Wisconsin 17.4
Total
proj 52.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.