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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 8 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Big Ten · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–367%
ATS vs close
7–278%
Model margin MAE
11.6
Market margin MAE
10.7
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Michigan State @ IndianaFinal 13–38
Model
pred Indiana 22.0 · actual Indiana 25
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan State +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Purdue @ NorthwesternFinal 0–19
Model
pred Northwestern 7.0 · actual Northwestern 19
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Washington @ MichiganFinal 7–24
Model
pred Michigan 5.0 · actual Michigan 17
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 13.0 · closer
Penn State @ IowaFinal 24–25
Model
pred Iowa 3.1 · actual Iowa 1
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
USC @ Notre DameFinal 24–34
Model
pred USC 0.4 · actual Notre Dame 10
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned USC +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Maryland @ UCLAFinal 17–20
Model
pred Maryland 1.0 · actual UCLA 3
winner Maryland ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ MinnesotaFinal 6–24
Model
pred Nebraska 5.5 · actual Minnesota 18
winner Nebraska ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 23.5 · mkt 25.0 · closer
Oregon @ RutgersFinal 56–10
Model
pred Oregon 19.7 · actual Oregon 46
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.3 · mkt 28.5 · closer
Ohio State @ WisconsinFinal 34–0
Model
pred Ohio State 23.0 · actual Ohio State 34
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.