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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 7 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Big Ten · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–367%
ATS vs close
6–367%
Model margin MAE
16.0
Market margin MAE
14.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Northwestern @ Penn StateFinal 22–21
Model
pred Penn State 18.0 · actual Northwestern 1
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 21.5 · closer
UCLA @ Michigan StateFinal 38–13
Model
pred Michigan State 11.1 · actual UCLA 25
winner Michigan State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan State -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.1 · mkt 32.0 · mkt closer
Michigan @ USCFinal 13–31
Model
pred USC 7.0 · actual USC 18
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned USC -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Indiana @ OregonFinal 30–20
Model
pred Oregon 5.0 · actual Indiana 10
winner Oregon ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Indiana +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.0 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Rutgers @ WashingtonFinal 19–38
Model
pred Washington 1.8 · actual Washington 19
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Purdue @ MinnesotaFinal 20–27
Model
pred Minnesota 0.2 · actual Minnesota 7
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Iowa @ WisconsinFinal 37–0
Model
pred Iowa 7.2 · actual Iowa 37
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.8 · mkt 32.0 · closer
Nebraska @ MarylandFinal 34–31
Model
pred Nebraska 9.0 · actual Nebraska 3
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.0 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Ohio State @ IllinoisFinal 34–16
Model
pred Ohio State 21.5 · actual Ohio State 18
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -15.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.