CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 6 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 6 backtest · Big Ten · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–186%
ATS vs close
4–357%
Model margin MAE
13.1
Market margin MAE
11.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Michigan State @ NebraskaFinal 27–38
Model
pred Nebraska 14.9 · actual Nebraska 11
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Minnesota @ Ohio StateFinal 3–42
Model
pred Ohio State 14.3 · actual Ohio State 39
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ MichiganFinal 10–24
Model
pred Michigan 12.2 · actual Michigan 14
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 3.5 · closer
UL Monroe @ NorthwesternFinal 7–42
Model
pred Northwestern 10.6 · actual Northwestern 35
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.4 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Washington @ MarylandFinal 24–20
Model
pred Washington 1.1 · actual Washington 4
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Illinois @ PurdueFinal 43–27
Model
pred Illinois 9.9 · actual Illinois 16
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Penn State @ UCLAFinal 37–42
Model
pred Penn State 22.7 · actual UCLA 5
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 29.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.