CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 5 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Big Ten · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–433%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
8.8
Market margin MAE
5.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UCLA @ NorthwesternFinal 14–17
Model
pred Northwestern 5.8 · actual Northwestern 3
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Oregon @ Penn StateFinal 30–24
Model
pred Penn State 5.0 · actual Oregon 6
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Ohio State @ WashingtonFinal 24–6
Model
pred Washington 2.6 · actual Ohio State 18
winner Washington ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Rutgers @ MinnesotaFinal 28–31
Model
pred Rutgers 1.1 · actual Minnesota 3
winner Rutgers ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Indiana @ IowaFinal 20–15
Model
pred Indiana 2.9 · actual Indiana 5
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 4.5 · closer
USC @ IllinoisFinal 32–34
Model
pred USC 10.1 · actual Illinois 2
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned USC -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.