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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 4 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · Big Ten · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–275%
ATS vs close
2–5 · 1P29%
Model margin MAE
16.7
Market margin MAE
12.8
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oregon State @ OregonFinal 7–41
Model
pred Oregon 31.9 · actual Oregon 34
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +34.0Push
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ USCFinal 31–45
Model
pred USC 23.9 · actual USC 14
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned USC -18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Purdue @ Notre DameFinal 30–56
Model
pred Notre Dame 8.0 · actual Notre Dame 26
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ NebraskaFinal 30–27
Model
pred Nebraska 7.1 · actual Michigan 3
winner Nebraska ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Illinois @ IndianaFinal 10–63
Model
pred Indiana 4.5 · actual Indiana 53
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 48.5 · mkt 46.0 · mkt closer
Maryland @ WisconsinFinal 27–10
Model
pred Wisconsin 1.8 · actual Maryland 17
winner Wisconsin ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 27.5 · closer
Iowa @ RutgersFinal 38–28
Model
pred Iowa 4.1 · actual Iowa 10
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Washington @ Washington StateFinal 59–24
Model
pred Washington 14.9 · actual Washington 35
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.1 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.