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2025 · Week 3 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Big Ten · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–189%
ATS vs close
7–278%
Model margin MAE
13.1
Market margin MAE
13.3
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ IowaFinal 7–47
Model
pred Iowa 36.5 · actual Iowa 40
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -35.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ MichiganFinal 3–63
Model
pred Michigan 29.1 · actual Michigan 60
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 30.9 · mkt 32.5 · closer
Ohio @ Ohio StateFinal 9–37
Model
pred Ohio State 23.8 · actual Ohio State 28
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ IllinoisFinal 0–38
Model
pred Illinois 18.9 · actual Illinois 38
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ AlabamaFinal 14–38
Model
pred Alabama 17.6 · actual Alabama 24
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ UCLAFinal 35–10
Model
pred UCLA 14.8 · actual New Mexico 25
winner UCLA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 39.8 · mkt 40.5 · closer
Minnesota @ CaliforniaFinal 14–27
Model
pred California 3.5 · actual California 13
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.5 · mkt 16.0 · closer
USC @ PurdueFinal 33–17
Model
pred USC 15.4 · actual USC 16
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Oregon @ NorthwesternFinal 34–14
Model
pred Oregon 23.5 · actual Oregon 20
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.