CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 2 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Big Ten · 13 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
11–285%
ATS vs close
4–8 · 1P33%
Model margin MAE
16.6
Market margin MAE
12.7
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida International @ Penn StateFinal 0–34
Model
pred Penn State 42.4 · actual Penn State 34
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -41.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 7.8 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ IndianaFinal 9–56
Model
pred Indiana 30.3 · actual Indiana 47
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +35.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Southern @ USCFinal 20–59
Model
pred USC 25.3 · actual USC 39
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +28.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 10.2 · mkt closer
Akron @ NebraskaFinal 0–68
Model
pred Nebraska 25.1 · actual Nebraska 68
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +33.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 42.9 · mkt 34.2 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ WisconsinFinal 10–42
Model
pred Wisconsin 20.2 · actual Wisconsin 32
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
UCLA @ UNLVFinal 23–30
Model
pred UNLV 17.3 · actual UNLV 7
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ RutgersFinal 17–45
Model
pred Rutgers 15.2 · actual Rutgers 28
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ OregonFinal 3–69
Model
pred Oregon 14.0 · actual Oregon 66
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 52.0 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ OklahomaFinal 13–24
Model
pred Oklahoma 4.3 · actual Oklahoma 11
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ MarylandFinal 9–20
Model
pred Maryland 2.9 · actual Maryland 11
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +16.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
Boston College @ Michigan StateFinal 40–42
Model
pred Boston College 0.5 · actual Michigan State 2
winner Boston College ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Illinois @ DukeFinal 45–19
Model
pred Illinois 0.9 · actual Illinois 26
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.1 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Iowa @ Iowa StateFinal 13–16
Model
pred Iowa 1.6 · actual Iowa State 3
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa +3.0Push
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.