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2025 · Week 13 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · Big Ten · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–188%
ATS vs close
2–529%
Model margin MAE
14.1
Market margin MAE
13.0
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Rutgers @ Ohio StateFinal 9–42
Model
pred Ohio State 21.2 · actual Ohio State 33
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ IowaFinal 17–20
Model
pred Iowa 16.6 · actual Iowa 3
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan State +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.6 · mkt 14.5 · closer
USC @ OregonFinal 27–42
Model
pred Oregon 6.6 · actual Oregon 15
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned USC +11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Minnesota @ NorthwesternFinal 35–38
Model
pred Northwestern 5.0 · actual Northwestern 3
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ Penn StateFinal 10–37
Model
pred Penn State 4.8 · actual Penn State 27
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.2 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Illinois @ WisconsinFinal 10–27
Model
pred Illinois 2.5 · actual Wisconsin 17
winner Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.5 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Washington @ UCLAFinal 48–14
Model
pred Washington 9.5 · actual Washington 34
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.5 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ MarylandFinal 45–20
Model
pred Michigan 14.0 · actual Michigan 25
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 11.0 · tie
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.